FLUKTUASI CURRENT ACCOUNT DAN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA INDONESIA

Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty, Rusiadi Rusiadi

Abstract


Foreign exchange reserves are the central bank's assets as a source of financing funds for international trade transactions in the global market. This research aims to analyze the current account fluctuations and portfolio investment against Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. By using the time series 1981-2018 data sourced from the World Bank, the research results based on the method Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) indicates that the current account and the foreign exchange reserves have a two-way causality relationship and portfolio investment has a two-way causality relationship at Lag 3. The short-term estimate shows that the current account has a significant positive effect while the portfolio of investments affects negatively and significantly against the foreign exchange reserves. Long-term estimation of current account and portfolio investment is a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. Variance decomposition on short-term, intermediate and long-length contributions to the first largest foreign exchange reserves described by the foreign exchange reserves variable itself. The government should maintain the position of balance of transactions running on a surplus condition to support the increase in the number of foreign exchange reserves from time to time to encourage the acceleration of increasing the number of foreign exchange reserves cause in the short, medium and long-term first contribution to the variable foreign exchange reserves are on the foreign exchange reserves.
Keywords: current account, exchange rate, GDP per capita, portfolio investment, reserves


Full Text:

PDF

References


Basuki, Tri Agus; Prawoto, N. (2016). Analisis Regresi Dalam Penelitian Ekonomi & Bisnis (Dilengkapi Aplikasi SPSS & Eviews). In Pendekatan VECM (1st ed., pp. 1–25). Jakarta: Raja Grafindo Persada.

Benny, J. (2013). EKSPOR DAN IMPOR PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP POSISI CADANGAN DEVISA DI INDONESIA. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 1(4). Retrieved from https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/1896-ID-ekspor-dan-impor-pengaruhnya-terhadap-posisi-cadangan-devisa-di-indonesia.pdf

Falianty, T. A. (2014). Waspadai Naiknya Cadangan Devisa dari investasi Portofolio Asing. Bisnis.Com, 1–2. Retrieved from https://ekonomi.bisnis.com/read/20140609/9/234258/waspadai-naiknya-cadangan-devisa-dari-investasi-portofolio-asing

Indrawati, Y. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment dan Investasi Portofolio Terhadap Stabilitas Makroekonomi di Indonesia : Fenomena Global Imbalances. Ekonomi Internasional. Retrieved from https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/171674-ID-dampak-foreign-direct-investment-dan-inv.pdf

Kuswantoro, M. (2017). ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, KURS, UTANG LUAR NEGERI DAN EKSPOR TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA INDONESIA. Tirtayasa Ekonomika, 12(1), 146–168. https://doi.org/10.35448/jte.v12i1.4442

Rangkuty, D. M. M. H. (2019). Using the ECM Approach between Growth of the current Account Balance and Foreign Exchange Reserves in Indonesia. AJHSSR, 3(10), 51–57. Retrieved from https://www.ajhssr.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/G193105157.pdf

Reny, A. (2014). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Dan Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia. Jurnal Wira Ekonomi Mikroskil, 4(2), 61–70. Retrieved from https://www.mikroskil.ac.id/ejurnal/index.php/jwem/article/view/214/137

Safitri, H. dkk. (2014). ANALISIS NERACA PERDAGANGAN MIGAS DAN NON MIGAS INDONESIA TERHADAP VOLATILITAS CADANGAN DEVISA 2003-2013. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 3(2), 353–361. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v3i2.3843

Saputra, T., & Maryatmo, R. (2016). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar dan Suku Bunga Acuan Terhadap Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di Indonesia Periode 2005:1 – 2015: 1 (Pendekatan Error Correction Model). MODUS, 28(1), 101–112. https://doi.org/10.24002/modus.v28i1.668

Sayoga, Pundi; Tan, S. (2017). Analisis Cadangan Devisa Indonesia dan Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhinya. Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika, 12(1), 25–30. Retrieved from https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/209615-analisis-cadangan-devisa-indonesia-dan-f.pdf

Widarjono, A. (2013). Ekonometrika Pengantar dan Aplikasinya Disertai Panduan Eviews. In Model Vector Autoregression (VAR) (Keempat, pp. 334–335). Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN Yogyakarta.

Wulansari, F. (2014). ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN : STUDI KASUS INDONESIA TAHUN 1990-2011. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 3(1), 55–69. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v3i1.3526




DOI: https://doi.org/10.35308/ekombis.v6i1.2013

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2020 JURNAL EKOMBIS

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.