Bankruptcy Prediction Analysis Of State-Owned Enterprises On The Indonesian Stock Exchange

Santy Aji Sitohang, Ramly Siahaan, Hotriado Harianja, Hormaingat Damanik

Abstract


Tujuan penelitian ini adalah: (1) menentukan potensi kebangkrutan BUMN berdasarkan model Taffler, Indeks IN05, dan model Y'GG. (2) mencari tahu apakah terdapat perbedaan hasil prediksi kebangkrutan dari model ketiga tersebut. (3) mengidentifikasi model terbaik yang dapat memprediksi gejala kebangkrutan. (4) menentukan prediktor terbaik dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif kuantitatif dengan data sekunder . Peneliti menggunakan purposive sampling untuk mendapatkan 20 sampel perusahaan. Data dianalisis menggunakan model Taffler, Indeks IN05, dan model Y'GG. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) model Taffler, Indeks IN05, dan model Y'GG dapat mendeteksi kebangkrutan pada potensi BUMN di Indonesia. (2) Setiap model memberikan hasil yang berbeda-beda dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan. (3) Model prediksi terbaik diperoleh oleh model IN05, model Y'GG, dan model Taffler. (4) Model prediktor terbaik Taffler adalah EBT terhadap kewajiban lancar, model IN05 adalah EBIT terhadap beban bunga, dan model Y'GG adalah laba kotor terhadap total aset. Hasil penelitian membuktikan bahwa Indeks IN05 sangat cocok untuk diterapkan sebagai alat deteksi kebangkrutan di BUMN. Variabel yang memicu kebangkrutan adalah masalah utang, beban bunga, dan penurunan laba.


Keywords


Taffler Model, IN05 Index, Y’GG Model, Bankruptcy Prediction

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.35308/akbis.v10i2.16140

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