Persaingan dan Divergensi Harga Teh Dunia: Bukti dari Pasar Lelang Colombo, Kolkata, dan Mombasa, 1960–2025

syahril syahril, Muzakir Muzakir, Saiful Badli, Irmayani Irmayani, Zulbaidi zulbaidi

Abstract


Penelitian ini membahas persaingan harga di tiga pasar lelang teh hitam utama dunia Colombo, Kolkata, dan Mombasa menggunakan harga tahunan 1960–2025. Penelitian menguji ko-gerakan harga jangka panjang, divergensi premi harga Colombo, patahan struktural yang tidak serempak, dan transmisi guncangan jangka pendek melalui uji akar unit, ko-integrasi Johansen dan Engle–Granger, model koreksi kesalahan, deteksi patahan ganda, serta dekomposisi ragam galat prakiraan umum. Kesetaraan harga jangka panjang hanya berlaku untuk Kolkata dan Mombasa (elastisitas 0,88; waktu paruh remaja sekitar satu tahun), sedangkan Colombo membedakan diri: harganya terhadap Kolkata naik dari sekitar 0,73 pada 1960–1979 menjadi 1,38 pada 2013–2025, dan terhadap Mombasa dari 0,78 menjadi 1,52. Patahan struktural terjadi sekitar tahun 1980 dan 2005 di Kolombo, tetapi sekitar tahun 1975 dan 2010 di Kolkata dan Mombasa. Korelasi imbal hasil turun dari 0,66–0,74 sebelum 1990 menjadi 0,12–0,52 sesudahnya, sementara limpahan guncangan relatif simetris (keterhubungan total 38%) tanpa pemimpin harga tunggal. Pasar teh dunia dengan demikian bergerak dari satu sistem harga terpadu menuju struktur yang tersegmentasi dan terdiferensiasi, yang penting bagi eksportir seperti Indonesia.


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.35308/jbksm.v10i2.16844

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